I live in California. As of last night, I saw gas prices the highest in my life. $5.99 for the normal stuff and $6.99 for diesel. If this isn't resolved soon... I can only imagine what will happen next.
Those gas prices shown at the pumps are merely one barometer, a stress-level indicator. The realities around the world are probably much more dire.
Elevated diesel prices for a long enough time (when the current fuel delivery contracts expire) will hit every supply chain for everything everywhere. If shortages persist then not even the raw materials like LPG and naphtha will be available which will mean that a lot of products can’t even be produced.
Your closing question is the right one, and the answer is worse than it looks.
The authority question isn't just "who's left alive to negotiate." It's that two different parts of the Iranian state are giving opposite answers right now. Araghchi at the Foreign Ministry has confirmed he's reviewing the proposals and Iran has submitted five structured counter-conditions — that's positional bargaining, not the flat rejection the military spokesman performed on TV. Meanwhile the IRGC's own media outlet called the entire talks narrative a "plot to sow division."
So the US isn't negotiating with an opponent who won't talk. It's negotiating with the half of Iran that will, while the half that controls the Strait, the missiles, and the corridor toll revenue publicly rejects the premise.
And there's a layer beneath that. Even if a ceasefire is signed tomorrow and Hormuz fully reopens — Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG terminal took direct damage with a 3-5 year repair timeline. European gas prices are now structurally decoupled from any oil ceasefire. The energy shock you're describing in food, mortgages, and auto loans doesn't end when the shooting stops. That's the part that hasn't broken through yet.
I live in California. As of last night, I saw gas prices the highest in my life. $5.99 for the normal stuff and $6.99 for diesel. If this isn't resolved soon... I can only imagine what will happen next.
Those gas prices shown at the pumps are merely one barometer, a stress-level indicator. The realities around the world are probably much more dire.
Elevated diesel prices for a long enough time (when the current fuel delivery contracts expire) will hit every supply chain for everything everywhere. If shortages persist then not even the raw materials like LPG and naphtha will be available which will mean that a lot of products can’t even be produced.
No doubt. I believe the Philippines is currently in a state of emergency due to the lack of oil. They need it for energy.
Your closing question is the right one, and the answer is worse than it looks.
The authority question isn't just "who's left alive to negotiate." It's that two different parts of the Iranian state are giving opposite answers right now. Araghchi at the Foreign Ministry has confirmed he's reviewing the proposals and Iran has submitted five structured counter-conditions — that's positional bargaining, not the flat rejection the military spokesman performed on TV. Meanwhile the IRGC's own media outlet called the entire talks narrative a "plot to sow division."
So the US isn't negotiating with an opponent who won't talk. It's negotiating with the half of Iran that will, while the half that controls the Strait, the missiles, and the corridor toll revenue publicly rejects the premise.
And there's a layer beneath that. Even if a ceasefire is signed tomorrow and Hormuz fully reopens — Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG terminal took direct damage with a 3-5 year repair timeline. European gas prices are now structurally decoupled from any oil ceasefire. The energy shock you're describing in food, mortgages, and auto loans doesn't end when the shooting stops. That's the part that hasn't broken through yet.