Trump’s Approval Is at 37%, Tucker Just Apologized for Supporting Him, and Virginia Could Wipe Out the GOP’s Gerrymandering Edge Tonight
The big picture: Trump is having a rough day. Tucker Carlson just sat down with his own brother — a former JD Vance aide — and publicly apologized “for misleading people” about Trump. The new NBC poll puts Trump’s approval at 37%, with the intensity gap between strong approval and strong disapproval doubling in a year. Virginia is holding a gerrymandering referendum tonight that could hand Democrats four additional House seats. And Trump’s plan to stem the bleeding is a week-long livestreamed Bible marathon.
Why it matters: The coalition that got Trump elected is visibly fracturing — and the faction turning on him isn’t pushing him to moderate. They’re pushing him to become more extreme. How this shakes out will shape the midterms.
The gerrymandering arms race hits Virginia
Last summer Trump urged Republicans to redraw congressional maps half a decade ahead of schedule. Texas added 5 red seats, California responded with 5 blue seats. North Carolina, Missouri, and Ohio piled on for Republicans. Utah courts gave Democrats an unexpected seat. Tonight, Virginia holds a referendum that could add 4 more Democratic seats — wiping out the net 2-3 seat GOP advantage built over the last year. If Florida follows through on Ron DeSantis’s redistricting promise, the balance could tip back. And if the Supreme Court strikes down part of the Voting Rights Act, Republicans could go much further.
Tucker apologizes
Tucker Carlson sat down with his brother Buckley Carlson — who just quit as JD Vance’s deputy press secretary — and went scorched earth on Trump. Buckley said Trump “has failed in his responsibility” and is “disdainful toward the American people.” Tucker said he and other Trump supporters “are the reason this is happening right now” AND added: “I want to say I’m sorry for misleading people. It was not intentional.”
But their issue is that Trump isn’t extreme enough
Their criticisms overlap with Democrats on Iran and the Epstein files — BUT their primary complaints are that Trump didn’t crack down hard enough on BLM, didn’t defend January 6 defendants enough, didn’t prosecute Democrats, didn’t investigate Charlie Kirk’s killing, and never joined the anti-vax movement. Tucker repeated dangerous and false claims calling the COVID vaccine “a bioweapon” that “killed hundreds of thousands” — claims that are flatly untrue. The vaccine saved millions of lives.
America Reads the Bible
Trump’s response to all this: a week-long livestreamed Bible marathon where nearly 500 Americans — including Hegseth, Rubio, Susie Wiles, and Mike Johnson — will read the entire Bible from Genesis to Revelation. Organizers call the Bible “indelibly woven into our national identity,” a statement with clear Christian nationalist undertones. Trump himself will read from the Oval Office tonight.
The numbers are brutal
37% — Trump’s overall approval
63% — disapproval
20% — strongly approve
50% — strongly disapprove
30 points — the intensity gap (double what it was a year ago)
32% — approve on the economy (52% strongly disapprove)
33% — approve on the Iran war (54% strongly disapprove)
67% — say the country is on the wrong track (up from 60%)
The bottom line
A week-long Bible livestream isn’t a recovery strategy. It’s a performance. The ground under Trump is shifting — his media coalition is fracturing, his approval is collapsing, and his gerrymandering cushion could get half-erased tonight. The question isn’t just whether he holds his base. It’s what happens to American politics if the answer is no.
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