Trump Told Europe to “Get Your Own Oil.” He Might Walk Away With the Strait Closed.
The big picture: Spain closed its airspace to U.S. warplanes. Italy restricted base access. France reportedly blocked military supply flights to Israel. Trump responded by telling allies to “learn how to fight for yourself” and “just TAKE” the Strait. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump has privately told aides he’s willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed because opening it would take longer than his timeline allows.
Why it matters: Gas just passed $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022. Oil is at $114 a barrel. The Strait carries 20% of the world’s oil and it’s functionally closed. The president who started this war without consulting allies, without a plan for the Strait, and without congressional authorization may walk away from the one objective that matters for your gas bill. AND he’s publicly attacking the allies who won’t help while giving diplomatic cover to Russia and China, who are actively helping the enemy.
The ally revolt: Spain closed airspace to U.S. aircraft. Italy reportedly restricted a Sicilian base. France reportedly blocked military supply flights. The UK and France declined offensive operations. Every ally refused to escort ships through the Strait. Trump’s response on social media: “Build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself.”
The Russia-China contrast: When asked about Russia (providing intelligence to Iran, possibly sending weapons) and China (quietly supporting Iran), Hegseth had no criticism. “We know exactly what they’re doing. We don’t have to air publicly what all of that is.” So allies who won’t help get attacked publicly. Adversaries helping the enemy get discretion.
The Hegseth briefing: First Pentagon presser in two weeks. Hegseth claimed “the upcoming days will be decisive” and the U.S. is “closer than ever to winning.” Trump declared the war won over a week ago. According to Axios, Trump has suggested the war was about to end at least 12 times. Hegseth wouldn’t rule out ground troops and repeated the “regime change” claim, which remains fiction: the new supreme leader is the son of the previous one and believed to be more hardline.
The exit question: The Wall Street Journal reports Trump told aides he’d end the war even with the Strait still closed, after learning opening it would exceed his timeline. A Brookings Iran expert called that “unbelievably irresponsible,” saying the U.S. “can’t walk away from the fallout” and “there is no possibility of insulating the U.S. from the economic damage.”
The alternatives: ground operations (risky, lengthy), strikes on civilian infrastructure like desalination plants (prohibited under the Geneva Conventions, would constitute a war crime), or walking away (leaves the Strait closed and oil above $100).
The cost right now:
$114 — oil per barrel (up from $72 pre-war)
$4.00 — gas per gallon today (first time since 2022, up 35%)
$5.42 — diesel per gallon (up from $3.76)
4 million — people the UN says may be pushed into poverty across the Arab world
1,574 — civilians killed in Iran including 236 children
1,230+ — killed in Lebanon
13 — American service members dead
12 — times Trump has suggested the war was about to end (Axios)
The bottom line: He started the war without consulting allies, without a plan for the Strait, and without congressional authorization. Now allies are closing their airspace, the Strait is still shut, gas is above $4, and Trump is reportedly willing to just walk away. He told Europe to get its own oil. He told Iran to get serious or face obliteration. He told Americans the war is basically won. None of those things can be true at the same time. AND the people paying the price don’t get to post on social media and pretend the contradictions don’t exist.
The Wall Street Journal | Axios | Reuters
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What’s the most disheartening about this is the Strait will never be handled the same. This is a catalyst point for American history yet again, our government has pinholed us as the heroes when we’re obviously not to so many outside of us. We’ve fucked over our foreign relations beyond belief and now we’re seen as the ignorant, naive , and privileged Americans. Fitting for what our country has been built on.
Why wouldn’t Europe just call American debts due? This is not good for the world but it would also cripple USD