Trump Says the War Is Almost Over. He’s Sending 10,000 More Troops.
The big picture: Trump is deploying 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East, bringing the total to roughly 60,000 with three aircraft carriers. His naval blockade has “completely halted” sea trade in and out of Iran, per CENTCOM. Iran is threatening to shut down all shipping in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea. Talks broke down over nuclear enrichment: the U.S. demanded a 20-year suspension, Iran offered 5. Trump says he doesn’t even like 20. The ceasefire expires April 22nd. AND the world’s top 100 oil companies are making $30 million an hour in windfall profits while ordinary people pay more for gas.
Why it matters: The man saying the war is “almost over” is sending 10,000 more troops, enforcing a blockade, threatening war crimes on television, and rejecting his own team’s nuclear offer because he doesn’t want Iran to “feel like they have a win.” Russia is earning $840 million a day from oil exports. Oil companies are on track for $234 billion in extra profit by year’s end. The ceasefire expires in days. Nothing about this looks like “almost over.”
The troop buildup: 6,000 aboard the USS George H.W. Bush (arriving as ceasefire expires). 4,200 Marines arriving end of month. Total: ~60,000 troops, 3 carriers. The administration is considering additional strikes or ground operations if no deal. Options reportedly include seizing Kharg Island and landing Marines to reclaim the Strait. Leavitt: Trump “has wisely kept all options on the table.”
The nuclear stalemate: U.S. demanded 20-year suspension of all nuclear activity. Iran offered 5. Trump told The New York Post: “I don’t like the 20 years. I don’t want them to feel like they have a win.” A former Army Secretary warned the pressure may convince Iran “of the necessity to rush for a bomb.” Any deal allowing eventual enrichment would resemble the Obama deal Trump called “one of the worst ever made.”
The blockade: CENTCOM: “Fully implemented” in under 36 hours. 10,000+ personnel, 12+ warships, dozens of aircraft. Six merchant vessels confronted and turned back (no force required). An official: “Our net is the Gulf of Oman. There’s one way in and one way out. We’ve got the whole thing on lockdown.” 90% of Iran’s economy runs on sea trade.
Iran’s threat: If the blockade “creates insecurity” for Iranian vessels, it’s “a prelude to violating the ceasefire.” Iran’s military: “We will not allow any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea.” Three waterways. Not just the Strait.
Who’s profiting: The Guardian reports the top 100 oil companies made $30M+/hour in windfall profits during the war’s first month. If oil stays ~$100/barrel: $234 billion extra by year’s end. Russia: $840M/day in oil exports in March (50% more than February, per the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air). Three Russian companies on track for $23.9 billion in war profits. Finance ministers of Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Austria called for a European windfall tax. Global Witness: “Until governments kick their fossil fuel addiction, all of our spending power will be held hostage to the whims of strongmen.”
The talks: U.S. officials told Axios: “We want to make a deal. Parts of their government want to make a deal.” New direct talks expected before April 22nd. Any agreement would be a framework at best, requiring ceasefire extension. Israel reportedly considering a short-term ceasefire in Lebanon — security cabinet discussing tonight after historic talks with Lebanese officials in Washington.
By the numbers:
60,000 — U.S. troops in the region (with new deployment)
10,000 — additional troops being sent
3 — aircraft carriers deployed
$30 million — windfall profit per hour for top 100 oil companies
$234 billion — projected extra oil profits by year’s end
$840 million — Russia’s daily oil export revenue in March
$23.9 billion — projected Russian war profits by year’s end
20 vs. 5 — years: U.S. demand vs. Iran’s offer on enrichment suspension
April 22 — ceasefire expiration
The bottom line: Trump says it’s almost over. He’s sending 10,000 more troops. The blockade is in effect. Iran is threatening to shut down three waterways. The nuclear gap is enormous. The ceasefire expires in days. Oil companies are making $30 million an hour. Russia is making $840 million a day. AND the president says he doesn’t want Iran to “feel like they have a win” in a negotiation that requires both sides feeling like they got something. He started a war that’s making Putin richer by the day, costing ordinary people at the pump, and generating hundreds of billions in windfall profits for the industry that benefits most from conflict. The war isn’t almost over. It’s almost profitable enough that ending it becomes even harder.
The Guardian | The Washington Post | Axios | The New York Post
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