There’s a Ceasefire. Israel Just Launched Its Largest Strike on Lebanon. It’s Already Falling Apart.
The big picture: The U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Iran says it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. will stop bombing. BUT Israel says Lebanon isn’t included and immediately launched its largest wave of strikes since the war began — 100 targets in 10 minutes, killing 254 people. Iran says it won’t negotiate unless Lebanon is included. The White House says it isn’t. The two sides can’t agree on what document they’re negotiating from. Oil dropped to $95 but gas is $4.16 and climbing.
Why it matters: This could be the beginning of the end or a two-week pause before something worse. Trump has claimed deals were imminent multiple times and every one fell apart. The Obama administration took 2.5 years to negotiate a nuclear deal. Trump is trying to do it in two weeks, from a worse position, with less trust, and with Israel actively escalating on a separate front Iran says must be included.
The ceasefire: Pakistan brokered it. Trump agreed ~90 minutes before his 8 PM deadline, posting it was a “double sided CEASEFIRE.” He claimed the U.S. had “met and exceeded all military objectives.” Iran’s foreign minister confirmed on behalf of the Supreme National Security Council.
The 10-point confusion: Trump said Iran’s 10-point plan was “a workable basis” to negotiate. His envoy Witkoff reportedly called it “a disaster” on Monday. Iran’s demands reportedly include: continued Strait control, U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East, all sanctions lifted, frozen assets released. The Farsi version includes “acceptance of enrichment” — missing from the English version. Nobody has explained why. A White House official says the public version differs from what Trump called “workable.” Trump accused unnamed parties of being “fraudsters.”
The “victory”: Pentagon claims: 80% of air defenses destroyed, 800 drone facilities, 450 missile facilities, 150+ ships. BUT ~1,000 lbs of enriched uranium remains in Iran. Only ~⅓ of missiles confirmed destroyed. Proxies weakened but not defeated. Navy destroyed but Iran still controls the Strait. The Obama deal shipped 97% of nuclear fuel out through diplomacy. If this war doesn’t remove the uranium, Trump accomplished less than Obama did at a table.
The Strait: Iran says safe passage requires coordination with its military. Ships still need permission. Iran and Oman charging fees. Major shipping companies not sending vessels yet. Oil dropped to $95/barrel (still 30% above pre-war). Gas at $4.16/gallon and may keep rising for months. ~10% of global oil supply offline from damage to refineries across 9+ countries.
Lebanon: Israel launched 100 strikes in 10 minutes. 254 killed. 1,000+ wounded. Total Lebanese death toll approaching 2,000. The White House confirmed Lebanon isn’t included in the ceasefire. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened retaliation if Lebanon attacks don’t stop. Iran’s foreign minister: “The U.S. must choose — ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both.” Talks in Islamabad scheduled for Saturday with Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner.
By the numbers:
2 — weeks of ceasefire
254 — killed in Israel’s largest Lebanon strike wave (10 minutes)
$95 — oil per barrel (still 30% above pre-war)
$4.16 — gas per gallon (AAA)
~1,000 lbs — enriched uranium still in Iran
10% — of global oil supply offline
38 — days of major combat operations
0 — agreement on what document is being negotiated
The bottom line: There’s a ceasefire. The Strait is technically open but ships aren’t going through. Oil dropped but gas keeps climbing. Israel says Lebanon isn’t included and just killed 254 people to prove it. Iran says no talks without Lebanon. The two sides can’t agree on the negotiating document. Trump is claiming victory while nearly 1,000 pounds of enriched uranium sits exactly where it was. This is either the beginning of the end or a two-week intermission before something worse. Words are words. Actions are actions. And with this situation, the two don’t always line up.
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Question: if two versions of the same deal exist and they say something different (in this case omits a part), do they cancel each other out?