Swalwell Denies Allegations Before They’re Formally Made. The Governor’s Race Gets Messier.
The big picture: Rep. Eric Swalwell, the leading Democratic candidate for California governor, denied sexual misconduct allegations at a town hall last night — before any alleged victims have gone public or any vetted accounts have been published. The claims come from left-leaning influencers who say they’re working with women preparing to come forward. Politico described them as “vague allegations that have not been vetted and published in the media or levied by anyone claiming firsthand knowledge.” Meanwhile, the governor’s race remains at risk of sending two Republicans to the general election, though Trump’s endorsement of Steve Hilton may actually help prevent that.
Why it matters: California’s jungle primary is in June. Early voting starts in 27 days. The Democratic field is crowded. Swalwell is the closest thing to a frontrunner on the left. If these allegations grow or are substantiated, it could weaken the leading Democrat in a race where the party can’t afford to lose a single point. AND the probability of a two-Republican general — while down from 20% to 15% — is still high enough to make Democrats sweat.
The allegations: Cheyenne Hunt, director of Gen Z for Change, said she’s “working with a number of women” preparing to share stories of “sexual harassment and even alleged abuse” by Swalwell. Other accounts have made similar claims. No alleged victim has gone public. No media outlet has published a vetted account. Politico called them “vague allegations not levied by anyone claiming firsthand knowledge.”
Swalwell’s response: Called the claims “false” at a town hall. His campaign: “In 13 years, not a single ethics complaint by any staff in his office has ever been lodged. Ever.” Called it an “outrageous rumor” spread by “flailing opponents who have teamed up with MAGA conspiracy theorists.” Senator Ruben Gallego noted some accounts pushing claims are brand new. The influencers behind the claims called this “an intimidation tactic.”
The governor’s race: California’s jungle primary sends the top two vote-getters to the general regardless of party. Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco have led most polls. An expert model puts the odds of a two-Republican general at ~15%, down from ~20%. Trump endorsed Hilton this week — which could consolidate Republican support around one candidate and actually help a Democrat finish in the top two. Democrats had reportedly considered spending money to boost a Republican; Trump’s endorsement may free up that cash.
By the numbers:
27 — days until early voting starts
15% — current probability of a two-Republican general (down from 20%)
17% — Hilton’s lead in one poll
13% — Swalwell’s position in the same poll
13 — years without an ethics complaint, per Swalwell’s campaign
0 — firsthand accounts published by any media outlet
The bottom line: The allegations are unvetted and no alleged victims have gone public. BUT they’re gaining traction from both sides of the aisle 27 days before early voting. Swalwell is the leading Democrat in a race where Democrats can’t afford a fractured vote. If these claims evolve, they could weaken the party’s best shot at keeping one of their own in the top two. Trump’s Hilton endorsement may have accidentally helped solve one problem. The Swalwell situation could create another. Nothing about this race is settled.
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