Someone Won 93% of Their Bets on Secret Military Strikes. The President’s Son Is Invested in the Platform.
The big picture: Prediction markets are at the center of a collision between states trying to regulate gambling, a federal government protecting the platforms, and growing evidence of insider trading on military operations. The president’s family has financial ties to both major platforms, and the administration killed two investigations into them.
Why it matters: Someone is making hundreds of thousands of dollars betting on unannounced military strikes hours before they happen. No one has ever been charged for insider trading on a prediction market. And the people with the power to regulate these platforms have financial incentives not to.
The regulatory loophole: Gambling is regulated by states. Prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC at the federal level. This lets platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi operate in states where sports betting is banned, even though about half of Polymarket’s and 90% of Kalshi’s trading is sports-related.
The Trump connection: Donald Trump Jr. is invested in Polymarket and advises Kalshi. Truth Social launched a prediction market. The administration killed two Biden-era probes into both platforms and approved Polymarket for U.S. operations.
The state pushback: Arizona charged Kalshi with a 20-count complaint for violating betting bans. A Nevada judge temporarily blocked Kalshi’s sports bets. A Georgia class action accuses Kalshi of breaking state law. Trump’s CFTC is intervening to argue for exclusive federal authority.
The bipartisan bills: Republican John Curtis and Democrat Adam Schiff introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act. Senators Murphy and Casar introduced the BETS OFF Act. Both target prediction market loopholes.
The insider trading evidence:
One trader: Nearly $1 million since 2024. Won 93% of five-figure bets on unannounced U.S./Israeli operations. Bets placed hours before strikes.
Eight accounts: All created around March 21. Bet $70,000 on a ceasefire returning $820,000. One account also bet on Trump’s initial strikes and nothing else.
Bubblemaps CEO: “All of this is strong signaling of insider activity.”
People ever charged for insider trading on prediction markets: zero.
By the numbers:
93% — win rate on one trader’s Iran war bets
$1 million — approximate earnings from suspected insider trades
90% — share of Kalshi’s trading that is sports-related
$820,000 — potential return on the $70,000 ceasefire bets
0 — people ever charged for insider trading on prediction markets
2 — investigations killed by the Trump administration
The bottom line: The same administration with family investments in these platforms killed the investigations, approved their U.S. operations, and is now fighting states that try to regulate them. Someone is profiting off advance knowledge of military strikes. Nobody is being held accountable. And the system is working exactly as designed for the people who designed it.
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This is a deliberate crime set up by TRUMP and no one is stopping it.
This is a deliberate crime set up by TRUMP and no one is stopping it.