Democrats Moved the Needle 25 Points in One of the Reddest Districts in America
The big picture: Republican Clay Fuller won the Georgia special runoff to keep MTG’s old seat, BUT Democrat Shawn Harris moved the needle 25 points and won Cobb County, which Trump carried in 2024. In Wisconsin, Democrats flipped a historically red mayoral seat in Waukesha and expanded the liberal Supreme Court majority. Democrats have also flipped mayors in Omaha, Miami, and Boca Raton. Trump’s endorsement still dominates Republican primaries, but the war in Iran is eroding his influence with voters.
Why it matters: Democrats are outperforming expectations across the board. Republicans are spending money defending seats that should be safe. BUT closing margins isn’t the same as winning seats. The midterms are eight months away, and the war in Iran is the variable that could tip everything. Trump’s endorsement is still gold in primaries, but it’s becoming a liability in general elections as his approval sits at 36%.
Georgia: Fuller won, BUT Harris moved the margin 25 points. Floyd County shifted ~30 points. Harris won Cobb County (Trump/Greene territory). Republicans spent $2M to hold a ruby-red district. Harris: “They should never have to spend money on a ruby-red district. That tells you things are changing.”
Wisconsin: Democrat Halvensleben flipped the Waukesha mayoral seat in a historically red Milwaukee suburb. Democrat Chris Taylor, backed by Obama, won the Supreme Court race, expanding the liberal majority on a court sitting on redistricting and union rights. Wisconsin Democrats are eyeing two congressional seats and the governor’s race.
National trend: Democrats have flipped mayoral seats in Omaha, Miami, and Boca Raton, plus successful special legislative elections. The pattern: outperforming expectations in red and purple territory.
The Trump factor: His endorsement still dominates Republican primaries. One voter: “Trump endorsed him. That’s good enough for me.” BUT the war is souring his influence. Another voter: “He ran on no more wars. Americans can’t afford healthcare. They don’t care about what’s happening in Iran. Trump was dumb enough to do it.” Iranian-Americans in Wisconsin describe being unable to reach family because of the communications blackout.
By the numbers:
25 — points Democrats shifted in MTG’s old district
30 — approximate point shift in Floyd County, GA
$2 million — Republicans spent defending a ruby-red seat
36% — Trump’s approval rating
8 — months until the midterms
The bottom line: Democrats have the momentum: 25-point shifts, flipped mayors, court wins, and Republicans defending safe seats with millions of dollars. BUT momentum doesn’t equal seats. Elections are all or nothing. For Republicans, Trump’s endorsement is still the golden ticket in primaries, but the war in Iran is turning it into a potential liability for November. Right now, it’s a tightrope. Nothing is cut and dry. AND the variable that tips it all — the war — shows no signs of ending.
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